| RSK-001 | Mandatory registration reaches personal care and daily living supports in July 2027, ending the unregistered pathway for a core-supports business. | Legislated expansion under the 2026 Amendment Act (SRC-015) | A core-supports business trading unregistered has a hard end date roughly eleven months away. If registration is not complete by then, revenue stops. | 4 | 4 | HIGH | Start the verification registration application in month 1, not month 6. The 4-6 month verification pathway (SRC-021) leaves margin against July 2027 only if it starts early. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-002 | Approximately half of NDIS providers were loss-making in 2024-25 and 81% report current pricing is unsustainable. | Sector-wide margin compression (SRC-046, SRC-047) | The unit economics that look workable on paper ($21.30 gross margin per billable hour) are the same economics under which half the sector loses money. The difference is overhead and utilisation, not price. | 4 | 4 | HIGH | Model overhead explicitly rather than assuming it away; keep fixed cost below $1,000 per month until the tenth participant; treat admin hours as a costed input, not a rounding error (ASM-008). | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-003 | The support coordination service line is the subject of an active government restructure into a navigator model, in design and pilot through 2026-2028. | NDIS Review recommendation (SRC-049) | The recommended service model could have its funding mechanism changed within the first three years of trading. This is the specific reason DEC-003 is escalated rather than decided. | 3 | 4 | HIGH | Do not build a business whose only revenue line is support coordination. Pair it with a second line, and re-check the navigator design position every quarter. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-004 | The SCHADS classification used in the model could be wrong by one level. | The award schedule could not be read; fairwork.gov.au is robots-blocked (ASM-002) | A Level 3 rather than Level 2 classification cuts gross margin per billable hour from $21.30 to about $15.15 — a 29% loss — and moves break-even by roughly 40%. | 3 | 3 | MEDIUM | Have the classification confirmed by a workplace relations adviser before the first hire. Until then the model carries it as ASM-002 at Medium confidence. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-005 | Wages fall due before NDIS or plan-manager payments arrive. | Structural feature of the payment cycle (ASM-007) | At 300 billable hours a month the wage bill is about $15,700. A 14-day lag needs roughly $7,800 of working capital; a 30-day lag needs about $15,700. The prior working files omitted this entirely. | 5 | 3 | HIGH | Hold the working-capital figure as ring-fenced cash, separate from setup capital. Confirm actual payment terms with a plan manager before the first shift is rostered. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-006 | Foundational supports and the Thriving Kids programme begin drawing participants out of the scheme from 1 October 2026. | National Agreement on Foundational Supports (SRC-048) | Demand for core supports for lower-needs cohorts may contract during the exact window in which a new provider is trying to win its first clients. | 3 | 3 | MEDIUM | Target adult participants with established plans rather than the children's cohort most exposed to the transition. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-007 | The NDIS price limits used throughout the model were read from a summarising fetch of a 65-page PDF rather than a raw table. | Extraction risk (SRC-001, SRC-002, ASM-001) | A single mis-read price limit propagates through every revenue, margin and break-even figure in the study. | 2 | 4 | MEDIUM | Re-read the raw 2026-27 support catalogue and reconcile the five price limits used before any of them is relied on commercially. This is BKL-001. | Master Brain | Open |
| RSK-008 | No Approved Quality Auditor publishes a fee, so the largest single setup cost is a consultancy's estimate. | Absence of published pricing (SRC-034, SRC-035) | The audit line carries a $3,500-$12,000 spread — wider than every other cost line combined — and it sits at Medium confidence. | 4 | 3 | HIGH | Two written auditor quotes (ACT-007) collapse this band before any capital is committed. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-009 | Client acquisition depends on referral relationships with support coordinators and plan managers, and no published benchmark exists for how long that takes. | Market structure (SRC-045, market evidence) | The downside case — six months with no participant — is not a pessimistic scenario, it is an unbounded one. Time to first client is the least evidenced number in the study. | 4 | 4 | HIGH | Fund the runway for six months of zero revenue as the planning case, not the worst case. Begin referral relationship building during the registration wait, not after it. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-010 | OPPORTUNITY (upside). Mandatory registration in July 2027 will remove unregistered competitors from the personal care market. | Same legislative change as RSK-001 (SRC-015) | A provider that is already registered by July 2027 faces a materially thinner competitive field in a market currently fragmented across 269,000+ providers. | 3 | 3 | MEDIUM — OPPORTUNITY | Registering early converts RSK-001 from a threat into an advantage. This is the strongest argument in the study for acting now rather than waiting. | Zaid | Open |