NDIS & Aged Care Business Study · v2.0.0
Decision Owed: Is this a viable business?
Aged-care-first recommended by trade study. 14 actions owed, 10 HIGH risks. Capital needed: $44,483.
14
Open Items
of 14 register actions
10
HIGH Risks
of 16 total
$21.30
Gross Margin/hr
29% margin
$44,483
Capital Needed
before first revenue
Cash Curve Scenarios (12 months)
| Scenario | Worst Point | Cash-Positive | Month 12 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base ramp (owner) | −$13,333 | Month 9 | $21,437 |
| Slow ramp | −$16,083 | Not in 12 mo | −$4,341 |
| Paid admin | −$14,224 | Not in 12 mo | −$7,632 |
Trade Study — Entry Strategy
| Option | Strategy | Score |
|---|---|---|
| A | Aged care entity first; NDIS entity registers in parallel and takes clients second | 3.70 |
| C | Support coordination only; no support workforce, no aged care | 3.55 |
| D | Do not start; remain employed | 3.20 |
| B | NDIS entity first (core supports); aged care second | 2.45 |
Top HIGH Risks (10)
| ID | Risk | Level | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
RSK-001 | Mandatory registration reaches personal care and daily living supports in July 2027, ending the unregistered pathway for a core-supports business. | HIGH | Start the verification registration application in month 1, not month 6. The 4-6 month verification pathway (SRC-021) leaves margin against July 2027 only if it starts early. |
RSK-002 | Approximately half of NDIS providers were loss-making in 2024-25 and 81% report current pricing is unsustainable. | HIGH | Model overhead explicitly rather than assuming it away; keep fixed cost below $1,000 per month until the tenth participant; treat admin hours as a costed input, not a rounding error (ASM-008). |
RSK-003 | The support coordination service line is the subject of an active government restructure into a navigator model, in design and pilot through 2026-2028. | HIGH | Do not build a business whose only revenue line is support coordination. Pair it with a second line, and re-check the navigator design position every quarter. |
RSK-005 | Wages fall due before NDIS or plan-manager payments arrive. | HIGH | Hold the working-capital figure as ring-fenced cash, separate from setup capital. Confirm actual payment terms with a plan manager before the first shift is rostered. |
RSK-008 | No Approved Quality Auditor publishes a fee, so the largest single setup cost is a consultancy's estimate. | HIGH | Two written auditor quotes (ACT-007) collapse this band before any capital is committed. |
RSK-009 | Client acquisition depends on referral relationships with support coordinators and plan managers, and no published benchmark exists for how long that takes. | HIGH | Fund the runway for six months of zero revenue as the planning case, not the worst case. Begin referral relationship building during the registration wait, not after it. |
RSK-011 | The aged care sector posted its first negative quarterly result under Support at Home, and the model assumes a new entrant escapes the cause. | HIGH | V4 established that the losses sit in legacy overhead and in the replacement of the old dual-fee structure by a single ten per cent pool [SRC-063], while the direct-services line remains positive at about $16.10 per client per day — $63.85 of revenue against $47.75 of direct cost [SRC-074]. A new entrant carries neither. Re-test against each quarterly StewartBrown release; the trigger is the direct-services line turning negative, not the total. |
RSK-012 | The average assessed classification budget is lower than the $30,000 assumed, so every aged care revenue figure is overstated. | HIGH | The model brackets the whole ongoing classification range from $302.14 a client a month at Level 1 to $2,749.44 at Level 8 against the published schedule [SRC-064, ASM-020], so the exposure is bounded and visible. Record the assessed classification of the first five referrals before committing capital beyond the registration cost. |
Actions Owed by Zaid (14)
| ID | Action | Due |
|---|---|---|
ACT-001 | Confirm whether you will operate the business yourself full time, or fund it and employ a manager. | overdue 34d (2026-08-27) |
ACT-002 | Tell me the monthly cash you need to draw from the business, and from what month. | overdue 34d (2026-08-27) |
ACT-003 | Tell me the maximum capital you are prepared to lose entirely. | overdue 34d (2026-08-27) |
ACT-004 | Tell me whether you or a co-founder holds a relevant qualification or prior disability-sector experience. | overdue 34d (2026-08-27) |
ACT-005 | Ask the NDIS Commission whether the 1 October 2026 SIL registration deadline applies to a new entrant or only to providers already operating. | overdue 25d (2026-09-05) |
ACT-006 | Ask the NDIS Commission whether it charges its own application or certificate fee separate from the auditor's fee. | overdue 25d (2026-09-05) |
ACT-007 | Obtain a written quote from at least two Approved Quality Auditors for a verification audit of your intended registration groups. | overdue 10d (2026-09-20) |
ACT-008 | Obtain an insurance quote for public liability, professional indemnity and management liability. | overdue 10d (2026-09-20) |
Financial Model
$21.30
Gross Margin / hr
NDIS core supports
$21.30
Contribution / hr (owner)
owner-administered
$6.70
Contribution / hr (paid)
paid administrator
39.8h
Break-even (owner)
hours / month
126.5h
Break-even (paid)
hours / month
$15,875
6-mo Runway
no revenue, no draw
Aged Care (Support at Home)
$53.43
Gross Margin / hr
52% margin
$44,483–$52,848
Combined Capital
before first revenue
$1,840
Monthly Fixed Cost
combined entities