| ASM-001 | The 2026-27 NDIS national price limits apply to Victoria without a state differential. | Every revenue figure in the model depends on the price limit that applies in Victoria. | Medium | If Victoria carries a differential, every revenue and margin figure in the model is wrong by that differential. | NDIA, by reading the raw 2026-27 support catalogue rather than a summarised extract | Open |
| ASM-002 | A community-based disability support worker in Victoria sits in the SCHADS Social and Community Services stream at Level 2. | The classification determines the base wage and therefore the whole cost side of the model. | Medium | A Level 3 classification raises the casual rate from $45.28 to $50.61, cutting gross margin per hour from $21.30 to roughly $15.15 — a 29 percent margin loss. | A workplace relations adviser, or a direct read of MA000100 Schedule B | Open |
| ASM-003 | The business will not exceed the Victorian payroll tax threshold in its first two years. | Payroll tax is excluded from the on-cost stack on this basis. | Medium | Crossing the threshold adds roughly 4.85 percent to the wage bill above it, cutting margin per hour by about $2.20. | State Revenue Office Victoria — the threshold itself could not be confirmed from a primary source | Open |
| ASM-004 | The disability and social-assistance WorkCover industry rate is close to the 1.8 percent Victorian state average. | The industry-specific rate sits in a Special Gazette that could not be read. | Low | A rate of 3 percent instead of 1.8 percent adds about $0.54 per hour, cutting margin by a further 2.5 percent. | WorkSafe Victoria, or a broker quote | Open |
| ASM-005 | Bookkeeping and accounting for a small Pty Ltd costs $300 per month. | No vendor publishes a price; the model needs a figure for fixed overhead. | Low | Every $100 per month of error moves break-even by about five billable hours per month. | Any Victorian bookkeeper, by quote | Open |
| ASM-006 | A lean professional website and brand identity costs $2,500 rather than the $3,500-$30,000 published industry range. | The published range is too wide to model; a lean single-operator build is the realistic case. | Low | A $10,000 website adds roughly nine months to payback at the base-case margin. | Any Australian web agency, by quote | Open |
| ASM-007 | Plan managers pay a compliant invoice within 14 days of submission. | The payment lag sets the working-capital requirement. | Low | A 30-day lag roughly doubles the working capital needed to cover wages before revenue arrives. | Any established Victorian plan manager | Open |
| ASM-008 | Non-billable administration runs at 0.25 hours for every billable hour delivered. | Admin load is the single largest hidden cost in a small provider and no source publishes a benchmark. | Low | At 0.40 hours per billable hour the contribution per billable hour is NEGATIVE $2.07 — every hour sold loses money, and no volume of loss-making hours ever covers a fixed cost, so break-even ceases to exist. At 0.10 hours it is $15.46 and the business is comfortably viable. This one input spans viable to unviable. | Ability Roundtable benchmarking, or an operating provider willing to share its ratio | Open |
| ASM-009 | The 1 October 2026 grace period for SIL registration applies only to providers already operating, not to a new entrant. | It determines whether SIL is open to Zaid at all before certification is complete. | Medium | If a new entrant may also rely on the grace period, the SIL pathway opens roughly nine months earlier than modelled. | NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission, by direct enquiry — this is ACT-005 | Open |
| ASM-010 | The NDIS Commission charges no separate application fee beyond the auditor's fee. | No fee is published and one consultancy asserts a Commission fee exists without naming an amount. | Low | An unbudgeted Commission fee is a direct addition to the one-off capital requirement. | NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission, by direct enquiry — this is ACT-006 | Open |
| ASM-011 | Zaid will operate the business himself full time rather than as a passive investor. | Owner-operator status changes both the labour cost and the drawings the business must fund. | Low | A passive-investor model requires a paid manager, adding roughly $95,000 per year of fixed cost and moving break-even by about 370 billable hours per month. | Zaid — this is ACT-001 | Open |
| ASM-012 | Zaid's personal living costs are not funded by the business during the pre-revenue period. | Runway is modelled as business cash only. | Low | If the business must fund living costs from month one, the runway requirement rises by the full amount of those costs. | Zaid — this is ACT-002 | Open |
| ASM-013 | Support coordination work would be delivered by Zaid personally at a billable utilisation of 55 percent. | Support coordination margin depends almost entirely on billable utilisation. | Low | At 35 percent utilisation the support coordination model returns about $59,089 a year net to the owner instead of about $98,664 — a 40 percent fall for a 20-point drop in utilisation. Utilisation, not volume, is the whole business. | Zaid, against his own availability; benchmark data not published | Open |
| ASM-014 | General operating overhead — phone, internet, subscriptions, professional memberships, local travel — runs at $200 per month. | No vendor publishes this; the model needs a figure for fixed overhead. | Low | Every $100 per month of error moves break-even by about five billable hours per month in the core-supports model. | Zaid, from his own quotes once trading | Open |
| ASM-015 | The first participant is won in month 4 of trading, and volume ramps to 380 billable hours a month by month 12. | No published benchmark exists for time-to-first-client for a new NDIS provider (RSK-009), and the whole cash curve depends on it. | Low | A month-8 first client removes four months of contribution — roughly $7,000 — and pushes payback beyond 18 months. This is the least evidenced number in the study and the one most worth stress-testing. | An operating Victorian provider willing to share its own ramp, or a support coordinator willing to say how they pick new providers | Open |