T3 — TRADE STUDY 3 RESULTS
OWNER: 02_Work/scratch/T3_trade_study_results.md REVIEW: regenerate from 01_System/trade_study.py whenever a score or a weight changes. Split out of T3_trade_study_weights.md on 2026-09-07 after independent verification V6 showed that keeping the weights and the results in one file destroyed the ordering evidence the weights file existed to carry (DEF-027). The weights file is now immutable; this file is the one that moves.
RESULTS — SCORED AFTER THE WEIGHTS ABOVE WERE FIXED
Scored 2026-09-07. Scores are in 01_System/trade_study.py, each with the figure it rests on.
| Rank | Option | Weighted score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | A — Aged care entity first; NDIS entity registers in parallel and takes clients second | 3.70 |
| 2 | C — Support coordination only; no support workforce, no aged care | 3.55 |
| 3 | D — Do not start; remain employed | 3.20 |
| 4 | B — NDIS entity first (core supports); aged care second | 2.45 |
Margin between first and second: 0.15. That is close, and GOV-B6.4 says a close result is escalated, not decided.
Sensitivity — where the answer changes hands
Each row moves one criterion's weight and takes the difference from the criterion that most opposes it.
| Criterion | Weight now | Winner changes at | Hands it to |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital at risk before first revenue | 0.25 | 0.31 | C (3.61) |
| Contribution per client per month | 0.25 | no weight up to 0.60 changes it | — |
| Time to first revenue | 0.20 | 0.28 | C (3.63) |
| Regulatory stability over three years | 0.15 | 0.23 | D (3.52) |
| Independence from the owner's own hours | 0.15 | 0.26 | D (3.64) |
What this means
Four of the five criteria change the winner within a weight movement Zaid could reasonably make. The study's recommendation of option A is therefore conditional on the weights, and the weights are a statement of what Zaid values, not a finding about the world.
The specific fork: raise capital preservation from 0.25 to 0.31 and support coordination wins. If the answer to "what is the maximum you are willing to lose entirely" is small, option C is the correct answer and option A is not. That is ACT-003, still unanswered.
Under GOV-B6.4 this decision is escalated to Zaid and recorded as DEC-007, status Parked with Zaid. The project recommends A; it does not decide it.