Open raw ↗{
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12785.8
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3673.2,
3673.2
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"cumulative_cash": -12470.94
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"cumulative_cash": -7561.29
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{
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{
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41.2,
4122.43,
39301.2
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[
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57.6,
5771.4,
59088.86
],
[
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74.1,
7420.37,
78876.53
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[
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90.6,
9069.35,
98664.19
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107.0,
10718.32,
118451.86
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123.5,
12367.29,
138239.52
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"margin_sens": [
[
"Base case, all inputs as sourced",
21.3,
""
],
[
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15.15,
"Margin falls 29%"
],
[
"ASM-004 wrong: WorkCover industry rate is 3.0%, not the 1.8% state average",
20.76,
"Margin falls 3%"
],
[
"ASM-003 wrong: the business crosses the payroll tax threshold",
19.11,
"Margin falls 10%"
],
[
"Administration is paid rather than done by the owner (ASM-008 at 0.25 hr)",
6.7,
"Margin falls 69%"
],
[
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-2.07,
"Margin falls 110%"
]
],
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-12485.46,
-13332.79,
-13327.95,
-12470.94,
-10548.72,
-7561.29,
-3508.64,
1609.22,
7579.24,
14188.4,
21436.68
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-12485.46,
-13332.79,
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-15874.78,
-16082.98,
-15439.02,
-13942.88,
-11594.57,
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-4341.45
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-12485.46,
-13332.79,
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-13842.43,
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"paid_final": -7631.87,
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"loaded_wage_l3": 52.29,
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"ndis_gross_margin_hr": 21.3,
"hours_per_client_week": 5.04,
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"hours_bottom_classification_week": 1.8,
"ac_client_paid_admin": {
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"revenue_per_month": 2500.0,
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"service_revenue": 2250.0,
"billable_hours_per_month": 21.82,
"billable_hours_per_week": 5.04,
"direct_labour": 1084.04,
"service_contribution": 1165.96,
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"service_admin_cost": 318.75,
"bad_debt_allowance": 7.5,
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"ac_client_owner_admin": {
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"contribution_per_client_month": 435.3
},
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},
"contribution_ratio_paid_admin": 2.3,
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10557.8,
11157.8,
12957.8
],
"monthly_fixed": [
651.5,
993.17,
1738.17
],
"breakeven_clients_paid_admin": 1.0,
"breakeven_clients_owner_admin": 0.7,
"working_capital": 4173.2,
"runway_6mo_no_draw": 17116.82,
"runway_6mo_draw6k": 53116.82,
"budget_sensitivity": [
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10731,
1.8,
894.25,
302.14
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[
20000,
3.36,
1666.67,
638.83
],
[
30000,
5.04,
2500.0,
1002.06
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[
45000,
7.55,
3750.0,
1546.91
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[
60000,
10.07,
5000.0,
2091.76
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[
78106,
13.11,
6508.83,
2749.44
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],
"structure": {
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"agedcare_fixed_month": 993.17,
"two_entities_fixed_month": 1840.5,
"one_entity_fixed_month": 1234.0,
"monthly_cost_of_separation": 606.5,
"annual_cost_of_separation": 7278.0,
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"one_entity_oneoff": 21204.6,
"oneoff_cost_of_separation": 744,
"three_year_cost_of_separation": 22578.0
}
},
"structure": {
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"agedcare_fixed_month": 993.17,
"two_entities_fixed_month": 1840.5,
"one_entity_fixed_month": 1234.0,
"monthly_cost_of_separation": 606.5,
"annual_cost_of_separation": 7278.0,
"two_entities_oneoff": 21948.6,
"one_entity_oneoff": 21204.6,
"oneoff_cost_of_separation": 744,
"three_year_cost_of_separation": 22578.0
},
"trade": {
"weights_record": "02_Work/scratch/T3_trade_study_weights.md (weights timestamped 2026-09-07T06:22:16Z, before any option was scored)",
"criteria": [
{
"key": "capital",
"label": "Capital at risk before first revenue",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"key": "contrib",
"label": "Contribution per client per month",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"key": "time",
"label": "Time to first revenue",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"key": "stability",
"label": "Regulatory stability over three years",
"weight": 0.15
},
{
"key": "owner",
"label": "Independence from the owner's own hours",
"weight": 0.15
}
],
"ranking": [
{
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"label": "Aged care entity first; NDIS entity registers in parallel and takes clients second",
"score": 3.7
},
{
"option": "C",
"label": "Support coordination only; no support workforce, no aged care",
"score": 3.55
},
{
"option": "D",
"label": "Do not start; remain employed",
"score": 3.2
},
{
"option": "B",
"label": "NDIS entity first (core supports); aged care second",
"score": 2.45
}
],
"margin": 0.15,
"flips": [
{
"criterion": "Capital at risk before first revenue",
"weight_now": 0.25,
"flips_at": 0.31,
"hands_it_to": "C",
"new_score": 3.61
},
{
"criterion": "Contribution per client per month",
"weight_now": 0.25,
"flips_at": null,
"hands_it_to": null,
"new_score": null
},
{
"criterion": "Time to first revenue",
"weight_now": 0.2,
"flips_at": 0.28,
"hands_it_to": "C",
"new_score": 3.63
},
{
"criterion": "Regulatory stability over three years",
"weight_now": 0.15,
"flips_at": 0.23,
"hands_it_to": "D",
"new_score": 3.52
},
{
"criterion": "Independence from the owner's own hours",
"weight_now": 0.15,
"flips_at": 0.26,
"hands_it_to": "D",
"new_score": 3.64
}
]
},
"combined": {
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"fixed_month": 1840.5,
"runway_6mo": 32991.6,
"working_capital_low": 11491.81,
"working_capital_high": 19855.93,
"total_capital_low": 44483.41,
"total_capital_high": 52847.53
}
}