| RSK-001 | Mandatory registration reaches personal care and daily living supports in July 2027, ending the unregistered pathway for a core-supports business. | Legislated expansion under the 2026 Amendment Act (SRC-015) | A core-supports business trading unregistered has a hard end date on 1 July 2027 — about ten months from the currency date of 7 September 2026, and the verification pathway takes four to six. If registration is not complete by then, revenue stops. | 4 | 4 | HIGH | Start the verification registration application in month 1, not month 6. The 4-6 month verification pathway (SRC-021) leaves margin against July 2027 only if it starts early. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-002 | Approximately half of NDIS providers were loss-making in 2024-25 and 81% report current pricing is unsustainable. | Sector-wide margin compression (SRC-046, SRC-047) | The unit economics that look workable on paper ($21.30 gross margin per billable hour) are the same economics under which half the sector loses money. The difference is overhead and utilisation, not price. | 4 | 4 | HIGH | Model overhead explicitly rather than assuming it away; keep fixed cost below $1,000 per month until the tenth participant; treat admin hours as a costed input, not a rounding error (ASM-008). | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-003 | The support coordination service line is the subject of an active government restructure into a navigator model, in design and pilot through 2026-2028. | NDIS Review recommendation (SRC-049) | The recommended service model could have its funding mechanism changed within the first three years of trading. This is the specific reason DEC-003 is escalated rather than decided. | 3 | 4 | HIGH | Do not build a business whose only revenue line is support coordination. Pair it with a second line, and re-check the navigator design position every quarter. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-004 | The SCHADS classification used in the model could be wrong by one level. | The award schedule could not be read; fairwork.gov.au is robots-blocked (ASM-002) | A Level 3 rather than Level 2 classification cuts gross margin per billable hour from $21.30 to about $15.15 — a 29% loss — and moves break-even by roughly 40%. | 3 | 3 | MEDIUM | Have the classification confirmed by a workplace relations adviser before the first hire. Until then the model carries it as ASM-002 at Medium confidence. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-005 | Wages fall due before NDIS or plan-manager payments arrive. | Structural feature of the payment cycle (ASM-007) | At 300 billable hours a month the wage bill is about $15,700. A 14-day lag needs roughly $7,800 of working capital; a 30-day lag needs about $15,700. The prior working files omitted this entirely. | 5 | 3 | HIGH | Hold the working-capital figure as ring-fenced cash, separate from setup capital. Confirm actual payment terms with a plan manager before the first shift is rostered. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-006 | Foundational supports and the Thriving Kids programme begin drawing participants out of the scheme from 1 October 2026. | National Agreement on Foundational Supports (SRC-048) | Demand for core supports for lower-needs cohorts may contract during the exact window in which a new provider is trying to win its first clients. | 3 | 3 | MEDIUM | Target adult participants with established plans rather than the children's cohort most exposed to the transition. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-007 | The NDIS price limits used throughout the model were read from a summarising fetch of a 65-page PDF rather than a raw table. | Extraction risk (SRC-001, SRC-002, ASM-001) | A single mis-read price limit propagates through every revenue, margin and break-even figure in the study. | 2 | 4 | MEDIUM | Re-read the raw 2026-27 support catalogue and reconcile the five price limits used before any of them is relied on commercially. This is BKL-001. | Master Brain | Open |
| RSK-008 | No Approved Quality Auditor publishes a fee, so the largest single setup cost is a consultancy's estimate. | Absence of published pricing (SRC-034, SRC-035) | The audit line carries a $3,500-$12,000 spread — wider than every other cost line combined — and it sits at Medium confidence. | 4 | 3 | HIGH | Two written auditor quotes (ACT-007) collapse this band before any capital is committed. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-009 | Client acquisition depends on referral relationships with support coordinators and plan managers, and no published benchmark exists for how long that takes. | Market structure (SRC-045, market evidence) | The downside case — six months with no participant — is not a pessimistic scenario, it is an unbounded one. Time to first client is the least evidenced number in the study. | 4 | 4 | HIGH | Fund the runway for six months of zero revenue as the planning case, not the worst case. Begin referral relationship building during the registration wait, not after it. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-010 | OPPORTUNITY (upside). Mandatory registration in July 2027 will remove unregistered competitors from the personal care market. | Same legislative change as RSK-001 (SRC-015) | A provider that is already registered by July 2027 faces a materially thinner competitive field in a market currently fragmented across 269,000+ providers. | 3 | 3 | MEDIUM — OPPORTUNITY | Registering early converts RSK-001 from a threat into an advantage. This is the strongest argument in the study for acting now rather than waiting. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-011 | The aged care sector posted its first negative quarterly result under Support at Home, and the model assumes a new entrant escapes the cause. | SRC-068, SRC-069; resolved by independent verification V4 | If the cause is structural rather than legacy overhead, the aged care case inverts and the recommended ordering is wrong. | 3 | 5 | HIGH | V4 established that the losses sit in legacy overhead and in the replacement of the old dual-fee structure by a single ten per cent pool [SRC-063], while the direct-services line remains positive at about $16.10 per client per day — $63.85 of revenue against $47.75 of direct cost [SRC-074]. A new entrant carries neither. Re-test against each quarterly StewartBrown release; the trigger is the direct-services line turning negative, not the total. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-012 | The average assessed classification budget is lower than the $30,000 assumed, so every aged care revenue figure is overstated. | ASM-020, Low confidence | At $20,000 the contribution per client falls 36 per cent; at $12,000 it falls 65 per cent. Break-even still holds at one client but the ramp to a living income roughly triples. | 3 | 4 | HIGH | The model brackets the whole ongoing classification range from $302.14 a client a month at Level 1 to $2,749.44 at Level 8 against the published schedule [SRC-064, ASM-020], so the exposure is bounded and visible. Record the assessed classification of the first five referrals before committing capital beyond the registration cost. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-013 | Two published tables of Support at Home classification budgets disagree, and the model uses one of them. | SRC-064 (primary, used) against a secondary aggregator (Level 1 $11,010.01, Level 8 $80,137.12) | The disagreement is roughly 2.5 per cent at both ends of the range, which moves contribution per client by about $25 a month. Immaterial to the decision, but an unresolved conflict in a source register is a defect waiting to be found by someone else. | 4 | 1 | MEDIUM | The primary departmental schedule was preferred over the aggregator, and the conflict is recorded in SRC-064's confidence note rather than hidden. Resolve by opening the departmental PDF directly. | Master Brain | Open |
| RSK-014 | Aged care registration is granted with conditions, or requires a full quality audit at entry. | ASM-016, ASM-026, both Low confidence | A full audit at entry adds several thousand dollars and three to six months. Conditions on personal care would remove the largest revenue line entirely. | 3 | 4 | HIGH | Work the Commission's fee calculator through to a quoted figure for the specific categories before committing to the ordering in DEC-007. The one-off cost band already carries $600 to $3,000 for the fee itself [SRC-065, ASM-016, ASM-026]. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-015 | Holding two entities costs $22,578 over three years for a separation that is never tested. | DEC-006 | The cost is certain; the benefit is contingent on a compliance failure that may never occur. It is insurance, and it should be judged as insurance. | 5 | 2 | MEDIUM | The $22,578 is stated in the business plan and on the A3 sheet so it is never invisible; it is the duplicated accounting, bookkeeping, overhead and company-review lines [SRC-026, SRC-038; ASM-005, ASM-014]. Revisit at month twelve: if either entity has not reached break-even, the separation is being paid for out of a business that cannot afford it. | Zaid | Open |
| RSK-016 | The owner is the single point of failure in both entities at once. | ASM-008, ASM-028, DEC-007 | Both businesses depend on the owner doing administration unpaid in year one, because paying for it removes most of the NDIS contribution. Illness or absence stops both revenue lines simultaneously, which is the risk two entities were supposed to separate. | 3 | 5 | HIGH | Two entities separate legal liability but not operational dependency, and the plan should not pretend otherwise. Name a second person who can run a roster and submit a claim before the tenth client, in either entity. | Zaid | Open |